货币增长和通货膨胀

经典通货膨胀理论
价格水平和货币价值：总体价格上升时，货币价值下降；当货币价值较高时，价格水平较低。

货币供给，货币需求及货币均衡
与其他商品类似，决定货币价值的力量仍然是供求关系。货币的供给完全由中央银行来控制。货币的需求由价格的平均水平来决定，当价格上涨时，人们的口袋里需要有更多的货币来购买所需。在长期的经济运行中，价格的总体水平总是趋向于货币的需求与供给相等的那个水平。

quantity theory of money: a theory asserting that the quantity of money available determines the price level and that the growth rate in the quantity of money available determines the inflation rate.（可使用的货币的数量决定价格水平，可使用的货币数量的增长率决定通货膨胀率。）

古典二分法和货币中立性
nominal variables（名义变量）: variables measured in monetary units.
real variables（实际变量）: variables measured in physical units.
classical dichotomy:（古典二分法） the theoretical separation of nominal and real variables.

monetary neutrality（货币中立性）: the proposition that changes in the money supply do not affect real variables.
从长期来说，无论货币发行的数量如何，实际 GDP 取决于生产率和生产要素的供应，实际利率取决于可借贷资金的供需平衡，实际工资取决于劳动力的供需平衡，当实际工资由于某种原因高于其均衡点时，会发生失业。这些实际变量不依赖货币变化的情形称为货币中立性。货币供应的改变只影响名义变量。

但货币中立性的结论并不能给我们所生活的实际世界一个完整的现实解释。在短期内，货币的变动对实际变量确实有重要的影响。

货币流通速度和数量等式
velocity of money: the rate at which money changes hands.
V = (P X Y)/M. ——其中，V 为货币流通速度，P 为价格水平，Y 为名义 GDP，M 为货币数量。
由此得到数量等式：M X V = P X Y。
quantity equation: the equation M X V = P X Y, which relates the quantity of money, the velocity of money, and the dollar value of the economy’s output of goods and services.
这一等式反映了：当一经济体中的货币数量增加时，价格水平必须上升，生产数量必须上升，或者货币流通速度必须下降。

在多数情况下，货币流通速度是相对稳定的，因此可以假设其为常量。

货币数量理论的五步解释：
1. The velocity of money is relatively stable over time.
2. Because velocity is stable, when the Fed changes the quantity of money (M), it causes proportionate changes in the nominal value of output (P X Y).
3. The economy's output of goods and services (Y) is primarily determined by factor supplies (labor, physical capital, human capital, and natural resources) and the available production technology. In particular, because money is neutral, money does not affect output.
4. With output (Y) determined by factor supplies and technology, when the Fed alters the money supply (M) and induces proportional changes in the nominal value of output (P X Y), these changes are reflected in changes in the price level (P).
5. Therefore, when the Fed increases the money supply rapidly, the result is a high rate of inflation. （央行过快的增加货币发行，其结果就是高的通货膨胀率。）

inflation tax(通货膨胀税): the revenue the government raises by creating money.
为什么明知发行过多的货币会造成通货膨胀，会使货币迅速贬值而有些国家仍然要印那么多钞票？答案是：政府需要造钱来应付支出。通常在这种情况下，政府可以选择征税的方式，也可以选择发行债券向公众借款，而最简单的办法莫过于直接印刷所需的钞票。当政府选择印刷钞票的方式来增加收入时，这种方式即被称为征通货膨胀税。通货膨胀税与其他税唯一不同的是，政府不会向任何人开具帐单。政府印刷钞票时，价格上涨，老百姓口袋里的钱会变得更不值钱，因此，这就如同向每个口袋里有钱的人征的一笔税。实际上在类似中国这样的财富被不公平分配，两极分化严重的国家，征通货膨胀税的受害程度最大的是普通老百姓。

费雪效应

Fisher effect: the one-for-one adjustment of the nominal interest rate to the inflation rate.（名义利率的调整与通货膨胀率是步调一致的。）
反映在公式上是：
Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate - Inflation rate
或
Nominal interest rate = Real interest rate + Inflation rate

在经济的长期运行中，货币是中立性的，因此货币增长的变化不会影响到实际利率。要使实际利率不受影响，名义利率必须与通货膨胀率做步调一致的调整。因此，when the Fed increases the rate of money growth, the result is both a higher inflation rate and a higher nominal interest rate.

通货膨胀的成本

误解：通货膨胀降低了购买力吗？
通货膨胀率本身不会减少人们的购买力。实际上如果人们的收入能够同步于价格的上涨，通货膨胀不会是个问题，因为在这种情况下，货币数量的增加只不过代表了人们衡量商品价格的尺度的改变。但这是理想状况，实际上通货膨胀与人们的收入增长不可能同步，有些人会收入增加，有些人会减少。经济学家将这些因素标示为通货膨胀的成本。

1. shoeleather costs(鞋带成本): the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings. 减少被征通货膨胀税的办法是掏腰包买东西或者把钱换成其他认为可以保值的东西，在钱变得不值钱时人们都会这么做，而这样做会带来额外的成本。
2. menu costs（菜单成本）: the costs of changing prices. 因为通货膨胀，人们用来为商品确定新价格所消耗的成本，称为菜单成本。
3. 相对价格变异与资源的不正确分配。假设一家餐馆在一月份印制了一份新菜单以适应上一年的通货膨胀，此后一年都不再更改。而通货膨胀率是每年百分之十二，那么该餐馆的菜单的相对价格就会在每个月降低一个百分点。在开始几个月该餐馆的相对价格较高，而最后几个月就显得较低了。就是说，通货膨胀扭曲相对价格的时候，把消费者的决策也扭曲了，这使得市场资源不能得到有效的分配。
4. 通货膨胀诱发的税收的扭曲。税收政策制定者们通常不会将通货膨胀的因素考虑进去，而且，税收政策的变动是不经常的。例如，一个人在 1980 年以 10 美元买了微软的股票，在 2000 年该股票涨到了 50 美元时卖出，按照税收政策，他应当有 40 美元的收入需要纳税。但实际上如果假设从 1980 年到 2000 年物价上升了一倍，那么这 1980 年的 10 美元在 2000 年实际上应为 20 美元，而所获得的收入实际上只有 30 美元。但税收法却不考虑通货膨胀的因素，征税时仍按 40 美元的收入征税，而不按 30 美元。这等于变相减少了人们的收入。
5. 混乱和不便。通货膨胀会在人们衡量商品价值的尺度上带来混乱，造成人们判断上的失误。这会在任何方面带来不便，例如，税法不能正确的测量人们的真实收入，会计不能正确的计算公司的收益。
6. 非预期通货膨胀的一个特殊成本：财富的强制再分配。例如，某房地产商在两年前向银行借贷100万元，而在两年后贷款到期还款时，因为通货膨胀物价上涨了两倍，也即货币贬值了一倍，而该商人还给银行的钱仍然是100万元加上以此为基数的利息。实际上现在的 100 万元只相当于两年前的 50 万元了。该商人赚了，而银行损了，银行损了，也就是储蓄者损了，因为存款者的钱也贬值了。这造成了财富的不正常分配：老百姓的钱被商人掠夺了。

开放经济宏观经济学：基本概念

货物流：出口，进口以及净出口
closed economy: an economy that does not interact with other economies in the world.
open economy: an economy that interacts freely with other economies around the world.
exports: goods and services that are produced domestically and sold abroad.
imports: goods and services that are produced abroad and sold domestically.
net exports: the value of a nation's exports minus the value of its imports, also called the trade balance.
trade balance: the value of a nation's exports minus the value of its imports, also called net exports.
trade surplus(贸易顺差): an excess of exports over imports.
trade deficit(贸易逆差): an excess of imports over exports.
balanced trade: a situation in which exports equal imports.

影响一国对外贸易的因素：
* The tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods
* The prices of goods at home and abroad
* The exchange rates at which people can use domestic currency to buy foreign currencies
* The incomes of consumers at home and abroad
* The cost of transporting goods from country to country
* The policies of the government toward international trade

资本流：净外国投资
net foreign investment: the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners.(全体国内居民购买的外国资产减去全部外国人购买的本国资产。)

影响净外国投资的因素：
* The real interest rates being paid on foreign assets
* The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets
* The perceived economic and political risks of holding assets abroad
* The government policies that affect foreign ownership of domestic assets

净出口和净外国投资等式
NFI = NX

储蓄、投资及它们与国际贸易流的关系
GDP 的计算公式: Y= C + I + G +NX。考虑到国民储蓄（包括私人储蓄和公共储蓄）在此公式中表现为 Y - C - G，则此公式可以改写为 Y - C - G = I + NX，或者 S = I + NX。由于净出口等于净外国投资，即 NX = NFI，因此次等式可以写成
S = I + NFI，即 Saving = Demestic investment + Net Foreign investment。

在封闭经济中，NFI 为 0，这个等式可以写成 S = I。美国是全世界最大的债务国，其净外国投资是个巨大的负值。美国人不喜欢储蓄，因此用于投资的钱就少，外来投资是弥补这一不利状况的有效手段。

国际贸易的价格：实际和名义汇率
nominal exchange rate: the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another.
appreciation(货币增值): an increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.
depreciation(货币贬值): a decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.
real exchange rate: the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another.

Real exchange rate = Nominal exchange rate X Domestic price/Foreign price

以 e 表示本国货币对外国货币的汇率，以 P 表示本国的价格指数，以 P* 表示外国的价格指数，则实际汇率可以表示为：
Real exchange rate = (e X P)/P*

汇率决定因素的第一个理论：购买力平价。
purchasing-power parity: a theory of exchange rates whereby a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

购买力平价的基本逻辑：当商人们努力从价格低的一地将货物运输到价格高的一地去售卖时，其作用是增加价格低的一地的需求并增加价格高的一地的供给，这个作用会使两地的价格趋于相同。

购买力平价所表明的意思：
1. if the purchasing power of the dollar is always the same at home and abroad, then the real exchange rate—the relative price of domestic and foreign goods—cannot change. 即 e = P*/P.
2. According to the theory of purchasing-power parity, the nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries must reflect the different price levels in those countries.
3. when the central bank prints large quantities of money, that money loses value both in terms of the goods and services it can buy and in terms of the amount of other currencies it can buy.

购买力平价理论的局限：
1. 很多货物是不容易进行贸易的。
2. 可贸易的货物由不同国家制造时，并不总是相互之间的完美的替代品。比如有人更喜欢德国啤酒，而有人更喜欢国产的。
无论如何，这个理论对国际贸易来说都是有帮助的。当由购买力平价理论预言的实际汇率发生浮动时，人们就会受到发展国际贸易的刺激。

总需求和总供给

经济波动的三个主要表现
1. 经济波动是不规律的和不可预测的。
2. 多数宏观经济学意义上的量一起发生变动。如收入，支出，生产等。
3. 经济体的产出下降时，失业增加。

对短期经济波动的解释
经济波动的基本模型：总需求和总供给模型。
model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply: the model that most economists use to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend.
aggregate-demand curve: a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms, and the government want to buy at each price level.
aggregate-supply curve: a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that firms choose to produce and sell at each price level.

总需求曲线

为什么总需求曲线会向下倾斜？
考虑 GDP 的构成等式：Y = C + I + G + NX
假设政府支出固定不变，在此等式中，
价格水平和消费的关系：财富效应。A decrease in the price level makes consumers feel more wealthy, which in turn encourages them to spend more. The increase in consumer spending means a larger quantity of goods and services demanded.
价格水平和投资的关系：利率效应。A lower price level reduces the interest rate, encourages greater spending on investment goods, and thereby increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.
价格水平和净出口的关系：汇率效应。When a fall in the U.S. price level causes U.S. interest rates to fall, the real exchange rate depreciates, and this depreciation stimulates U.S. net exports and thereby increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.

为什么总需求曲线会平移？
当价格固定时，使总需求曲线发生平移的因素有：
1. Shifts Arising from Consumption
2. Shifts Arising from Investment
3. Shifts Arising from Government Purchases
4. Shifts Arising from Net Exports

总供给曲线
In the long run, the aggregate-supply curve is vertical, whereas in the short run, the aggregate-supply curve is upward sloping.

为什么总供给曲线在较长的时期内是垂直的？
In the long run, an economy’s production of goods and services (its real GDP) depends on its supplies of labor, capital, and natural resources and on the available technology used to turn these factors of production into goods and services.
由于价格水平不回影响实际 GDP 的长期决定因素，因此长期供给曲线就是一条垂直曲线。特定商品和服务的供给曲线是向上倾斜的曲线。因为特定商品和服务的供给取决于相对价格，即该商品和服务相对于经济体中其他商品和服务的价格。如，当冰激凌价格上涨时，冰激凌供应商会增加其产量，将人力，牛奶，巧克力及其他投入从其他商品的生产处拿过来。而经济体的总体的商品和服务的生产受限于其人力，资本，自然资源和技术。

为什么总供给曲线会平移？
1. Shifts Arising from Labor
2. Shifts Arising from Capital
3. Shifts Arising from Natural Resources
4. Shifts Arising from Technological Knowledge

使用总需求和总供给曲线来描述经济的长期趋向：经济的不断增长和持续的通货膨胀。

为什么总供给曲线在短期内是向上倾斜的曲线，即价格上升，供给量上升？
The Misperceptions Theory: a lower pricelevel causes misperceptions about relative prices, and these misperceptions induce suppliers to respond to the lower price level by decreasing the quantity of goods and services supplied.
The Sticky-Wage Theory: because wages do not adjust immediately to the price level, a lower price level makes employment and production less profitable, which induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied.
The Sticky-Price Theory: because not all prices adjust instantly to changing conditions, an unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms with higher-than-desired prices, and these higher-than-desired prices depress sales and induce firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services they produce.

Quantity of output supplied = Natural rate of output + a(Actual price level - Expected price level)

为什么短期总需求曲线会平移？
An increase in the expected price level reduces the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate-supply curve to the left. A decrease in the expected price level raises the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate-supply curve to the right.

经济波动的两个诱因
总需求曲线平移的影响：
* In the short run, shifts in aggregate demand cause fluctuations in the economy’s output of goods and services.
* In the long run, shifts in aggregate demand affect the overall price level but do not affect output.

总供给曲线平移的影响：
* Shifts in aggregate supply can cause stagflation—a combination of recession (falling output) and inflation (rising prices).
* Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of these adverse effects simultaneously.

请问 这些都是从哪来的啊

对于考试有用吗??